About

This is a publication about a variety of overlapping topics related to value investing, economics, life, wealth, health, cycles, and the current times.

I write to clarify how things actually work beneath the headlines—particularly around real assets, capital preservation & allocation and the behavioral traps that consistently catch people at the wrong point in a cycle.

The old blog ran for 3 years between 2008-2011. I wrote under a pen name, Aves Hawk, to highlight the superior perspective and positioning that is available to all of us through the lens of elevation, distance, and time. Hawks are birds of prey, meaning they hunt for a living. Much like value investors hunt for mispriced assets, they wait for the right opportunity, and then act.

This is not a news feed, a trade alert service, or a marketing funnel.
It’s a place to think in public, slowly and carefully.

Background

My perspective is shaped by years of formal, and self-led education, plus direct exposure to real-world industries rather than purely academic or financial abstraction.

I come from a professional background in agriculture, forestry, natural resource extraction, health & fitness. These are asset-heavy, cyclical sectors where capital allocation mistakes are visible, permanent, and costly.

That experience informs how I approach markets and risk: with a bias toward balance sheets, durability, and second-order effects rather than current narratives or short-term price action.

I do not write from the position of a forecaster selling certainty but as a practitioner trying to manage obvious cyclical risks.

Why this exists

Most commentary is optimised for immediacy, certainty, outrage or emotional reactions. Very little is optimised for for proactive preparation.

Markets, economies, institutions, & sovereigns move in long arcs. The costs of misunderstanding those arcs tend to show up years later, not days later. By the time consensus forms, the opportunity—and the risk—has usually passed.

This publication exists to step back from the noise and focus on:

• Structural forces rather than short-term narratives
• Incentives rather than stated intentions
• Cycles rather than linear forecasts

The goal is not prediction but direction and orientation.

Some of the authors I have read speak a lot about reference points, value, filters, and direction. Without relevant and firm foundations, the news of the time just blow us around like dust in the wind.

What I write about

Topics will vary, but the core themes remain consistent:

• Macro cycles and cyclical shifts
• Real assets, with a focus on gold and capital preservation
• Behavioral and institutional failure modes
• Risk-reward asymmetry
• The difference between signal and noise
• Wealth, health, nutrition, fitness, and time management all overlap into this realm

Some pieces are long-form essays. Others are short notes responding to changing conditions or persistent misconceptions.

Who this is for

This is written for people who:

• Care more about developing long-term perspectives on value and right action
• Are skeptical of consensus views, including their own
• Prefer clarity and depth over comfort
• Understand that restraint, observation, and calculated execution is a proper strategy

If you’re looking for frequent market calls, certainty, or easy answers, this won’t be a good fit.

What this is not

To be explicit, this publication is not:

• Financial advice or personalized investment guidance
• A trading service
• A promise of returns
• A substitute for independent judgment

Anything here should be treated as a framework for thinking, not a set of instructions.

Subscriptions

New posts are delivered by email and posted to the site.

Most writing is free. Paid subscriptions, when enabled, support deeper work and private commentary. There is no obligation to subscribe to read or benefit from the core ideas.

Final note

I write this primarily to sharpen my own thinking. If it helps sharpen yours as well, that’s the only metric that matters.